The latest data release from the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) for apprentices and trainees in the quarter ending 31 March 2025 shows that apprentice commencement numbers continue to decline. In the trades, commencement numbers declined by 1.8% overall in comparison with the March 2024 quarter. Construction worker commencements were down by 4.2% and automotive and engineering trades worker commencements were down by 3.0%. Some trade occupations saw slight increases.
In non-trade occupations, the commencement number decline was more marked, showing an overall decrease of 14.1%, with two occupations – sales workers and clerical and administrative workers – showing decreases of 44.6% and 20.4% respectively.
Ten-year data shows that the commencement bubble triggered by the Covid incentive package has run its course and numbers are returning to previous levels. This highlights two important considerations for the Commonwealth Government. One is that incentives do have an impact on recruitment decisions by employers. Both trade and non-trade commencements increased with the incentives, although more markedly for non-trade occupations. The second consideration is that incentives for apprentices may help push more people to aspire to particular occupations, e.g. via the New Energy and Housing Construction Apprenticeship schemes, but without a willing employer at the other end, it will not impact commencement numbers.
Australian Industry Group has observed over many years that for those people who would like to enter a trade, carpentry, plumbing and electrical work (the jobs targeted by these schemes) are the most popular, and employers have little difficulty in finding suitable applicants. It is the other trades, like metal and automotive trades, that struggle to attract applicants. Perhaps this is where more government attention should be directed.
